Runs

Run of heads

Example 1: What is the probability that there will be a run of at least 6 heads in 20 tosses of a fair coin?

We solve this problem by recursion. Let p = the probability that heads will occur on any toss, r = the size of the run we are looking for and n = the total number of tosses. For Example 1, p = .5, r = 6 and n = 20. Now for i = 0, 1, …, n, and j = 0, 1, …, r define

f(i, j) = the probability of getting a run of at least r heads in n tosses assuming there are i tosses remaining and the last j tosses have all been heads and so far there has not been a run of r heads.

Clearly for all j < r

f(0, j) = 0

And for all i

f(i, r) = 1

For all i > 0 and j < r, we have the following recursive formula:

f(i, j) = p ∙ f(i – 1, j + 1) + (1 – p ) ∙ f(i – 1, 0)

Here the leftmost term on the right side of the equation corresponds to getting heads when i tosses remain and the rightmost term corresponds to getting tails when i tosses remain.

The probability that there will be a run of at least r heads in n tosses of a coin with probability p that heads will occur on any toss is given by f(n, 0).

We solve Example 1 by building an Excel worksheet as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 – Run of at least 6 heads in 20 tosses

Here range B3:G3 consists of all 0’s, range H4:H24 consists of all 1’s. Cell B5 contains the formula =0.5*C4+0.5*$B4. We then copy this formula into the rest of the table by highlighting the range B5:G24 and pressing Ctrl-D and Ctrl-R.

We see (cell B24) that the value of f(20, 0) = .122315, which is the result we are looking for. Therefore, the probability of getting a run of at least 6 heads in 20 tosses of a fair coin is 12.23%.

If we want to know the probability that the longest run of heads in 20 tosses is 6 heads, then we need to first calculate the probability of a run of at least 7 heads in 20 tosses, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 – Run of at least 7 heads in 20 tosses

Cell K24 shows that the probability of a run of at least 7 heads is 5.82%. Thus the probability that the longest run of heads is exactly 6 heads is .122315 – .058182 = 6.41%. We can’t say that the probability of a run of exactly 6 heads is .064133 since we can have situations where there are runs of 6 heads as well as 7 or more heads (e.g. HHHHHHTHHHHHHHTTTTTT).

Run of heads or tails

Example 2: What is the probability that there will be a run of at least 6 in 20 tosses of a fair coin?

Here the run can be of either heads or tails. Once again we solve this problem by recursion. This time for i = 0, 1, …, n – 1, and j = 1, 2, …, r define

g(i, j) = the probability of getting a run of least r during n tosses assuming there are i tosses remaining and the last j tosses have all been the same and so far there has not been a run of r heads or tails.

This time to keep things simple, we will assume that we have a fair coin and so p = .5.

Clearly for all 0 < j < r

g(0, j) = 0

And for all i < n

g(i, r) = 1

For all 0 < i < n and j < r, we have the following recursive formula:

g(i, j) = .5 ∙ g(i – 1, j + 1) + .5 ∙ g(i – 1, 1)

Here the leftmost term on the right side of the equation corresponds to getting the same outcome as on the previous toss when i tosses remain and the rightmost term corresponds to getting a different outcome from the previous toss when i tosses remain.

Thus the probability that there will be a run of at least r in n tosses of a fair coin is given by g(n – 1, 1).

We solve Example 2 by building the Excel worksheet shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 – Run of at least 6 in 20 tosses

The probability of getting a run of at least 6 heads or tails in 20 tosses of a fair coin is 23.88% (cell U23).

Examples Workbook

Click here to download the Excel workbook with the examples described on this webpage.

Reference

Tijms, H. (2007) Understanding probability: chance rules in everyday life (2^nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
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