Strategy for Minimizing Wordle Expectation

Figure 1 summarizes strategies 1 and 2 described in Minimizing Expected Guesses for Wordle.

For each pattern after an initial guess of “trace”, the figure displays the number of targets compatible with that pattern, along with the best second guess for strategies 1 and 2 and the number of targets identified in 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 tries (assuming that you make the appropriate 3rd, 4th and 5th guesses). The weighted sum and expectation for each pattern are also shown. 

Wordle strategy part 1Wordle expectation part 2Wordle expectation part 3Wordle expectation part 4Wordle expectation part 5Wordle expectation part 6Wordle strategy part 7

Figure 1 – Strategies 1 and 2

Download Table

Click here to download the Excel workbook with the above table.

References

New York Times (2022) Wordle
https://www.nytimes.com/games/wordle/index.html

Scholtes, G. (2022) Wordle dictionary. Github
https://gist.github.com/scholtes/94f3c0303ba6a7768b47583aff36654d

2 thoughts on “Strategy for Minimizing Wordle Expectation”

    • Hello Dennis,
      ***G* after an initial guess of “trace” means that the target word has a “c” in the 4th position and does not have a “t”, “r”, “a” or “e”.
      Now even though “cuish” doesn’t have a “c” in the 4th position it is still a valid second guess. We have also determined that is the best second guess after ***G* despite this shortcoming.
      Charles

      Reply

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