Confidence and Prediction Intervals Proofs

Definition 1: Suppose we have a 1 × (k+1) row vector X0 = [1 x1 … xn]. Then the prediction of the multiple regression model based on X0 is ŷ0 where 

Regression prediction

or in matrix terminologyPrediction formula (matrices)

Property 1: For any 1 × (k+1) row vector X0 = [1 x1 … xn]

Expectation of predictionProof: By Property 3 of Multiple Regression using Matrices

Property 2:

Proof: By Property 1 and Property 3 of Multiple Regression using Matrices

where the last equality results from Property 4 of Multiple Regression using Matrices.

Property 3:

Proof: Since y0 = Xβ + ε0 and is a constant, it follows that the variance of is zero, and so

Also

But one of the assumptions for linear regression is that ε0 is independent of the coefficients in B, and so cov(ε00) = 0 since ŷ0 = XB. It now follows from Property 2 that